Saturday, December 31, 2011

The Publishing Year In Review

A quick look back at the mile markers of 2011:


January
  • Post-holiday ebook sales spike to 23.5% of all U.S. trade book sales
  • Amazon now selling more ebooks than paperbacks
  • Kindle Singles launches
  • Amazon extends 70% royalty option to Canada
February
  • U.S. ebook sales up 202% over previous year
  • Barnes & Noble selling twice as many ebooks as print books online
  • Apple begins enforcing new in-app purchase rules requiring 30% cut
  • Apple and the "Agency Five" publishers come under investigation for price fixing
  • Random House last of "Big Six" to adopt the agency pricing model
  • Harper-Collins caps library ebook loans at 26, to the chagrin of everyone else
March
  • iPad 2 launched: it sells in massive numbers without slowing throughout the year
  • Amazon launches Appstore (and is subsequently sued by Apple over the name - unsuccessfully)
  • Google Books settlement rejected by Federal judge
  • Self-pubbed author Amanda Hocking signs 7-figure deal for four books
  • Self-pubbed author Barry Eisler turns down half million dollar deal
  • The New York Times bestseller list includes self-published books
April
  • Amazon offers local library loans through OverDrive
May
  • Amazon now selling more Kindle ebooks than all print books combined
  • Amazon hires trade vet Larry Kirshbaum to head its publishing division
  • Barnes & Noble launch the eInk Nook Touch ereader
  • Kobo also launch an eInk touchscreen reader
  • Random House reaches 2 million ebook sales
  • IndieReader introduces list of bestselling self-published books
June
  • Pottermore launches (without any content or apparent plan)
  • John Locke becomes first self-published author to sell a million Kindle ebooks
July
  • Borders is liquidated
  • Amazon buys The Book Depository
  • Google launches the iRiver Story ereader, but no one cares
August
  • Amazon launches a web-based reader to counter Apple's in-app purchase policy
  • Amazon launches Kindle Indie Bookstore, featuring Kindle Direct Publishing titles
  • Apple and the "Agency Five" publishers hit with multiple civil lawsuits
  • Steve Jobs steps down as CEO of Apple
  • John Locke signs deal with Simon & Schuster for print distribution
September
  • Amazon launches the new Kindle line, with prices ranging from $79 to $199 for the 7" Kindle Fire tablet
  • Barnes & Noble stocks plunge as a result
  • Prices of ebook readers plunge as well
October
  • Death of Steve Jobs
  • Wall Street Journal launches ebook bestseller list
  • ePub 3 spec finalized
  • Amazon announces KF8 (Kindle Format 8), but doesn't release the specs
  • Kobo releases the Kobo Vox 7" tablet reader
  • Apple partners with Bookwire to include European content in iBookstore
November
  • Kindle Lending Library launches as part of the Amazon Prime program
  • Penguin pulls new titles from Overdrive library lending program
  • B&N launch the 7" Nook Tablet, but inexplicably keeps making the Nook Color
  • Amanda Hocking joins the Kindle Million Club
December
  • EU begins investigation into Apple/Agency 5 price fixing
  • Amazon introduces KDP Select, an exclusive library loan program for KDP authors
  • Amazon buys 450 Marshall Cavendish children's titles
  • Amazon price check app causes flurry of retailer agitation
  • Amazon selling over a million Kindles a week
  • Sales continue to decline at Barnes & Noble, dragged down by fading print book sales
  • More than a million ebooks were published this year, eight times that of the previous year
And those are just some of the main events of 2011. All in all a rather busy year. Stay tuned for the next round...it's shaping up to be a doozy.

SkyNews on the Rise of eBooks

SkyNews HD brings us this video report from the UK concerning the rapid rise of ebooks...

Thursday, December 29, 2011

iPad 3 Screen Specs

The All-New Frameless Holophonic Projection iPad 3D
[Source: Someone's Imagination]
As always there has been a lot of grist and speculation being churned out lately by the rumor mill about the many possible improvements we'll be seeing when the iPad 3 debuts this spring. With some honest competition finally appearing in the form of the Kindle Fire (albeit not directly, but for a portion of the market nonetheless), Apple can now start bringing out some of the innovations they've been holding in reserve for just such an eventuality, such as higher resolution display screens.

But while many (if not most) of the rumors floating about remain just that - rumor only, and nothing more - at least two of them have received some support of late, and one a reliable debunking. According to Apple supply sources there will be no 7" iPad going toe to toe with Amazon et al. in 2012, supporting Steve Jobs' assertion (at least for the time being) that the smaller form factor does not lend itself well enough to the tablet environment for Apple to pursue in earnest. That move (if true) will leave Amazon with at least a year of market domination in the 7" sector (barring a late-year release of a 7" iPad), and possibly delineate a reading / personal entertainment tablet sector from a broader computing / multi-use tablet market by year's end.

And while rumors suggest Apple will continue to provide the iPad 2 at a lower price after the introduction of the newer model, it's extremely unlikely to go lower than $399, which is still fully twice the price of a Kindle Fire. But you never know. It's possible the entry-level iPad 3 will debut at that price with the iPad 2 reduced to $299 or so. But I doubt it. Still, everyone was fairly shocked when the first iPad hit the street at $499, so Apple's not exactly behind the curve here. But this is all mere speculation, just more grist for the ever-grinding mill. Chew on it as you see fit.

As for what we will most likely see (rated "high probability" by CNET), the supply chain source corroborated earlier reports of a higher resolution screen in the form of a QXGA standard 2048x1536 display (produced by Sharp, Samsung and LG), which retains the prior models' 9.7" size. That fully doubles the current screen resolution of 132 ppi to 264, making it the first truly high resolution tablet capable of displaying HD video and images (by comparison, the iPhone/iPod Retina display packs in 326 pixels per inch). This will provide both opportunities and challenges for content creators who don't want products designed for the iPad 2's lower resolution to show up pixelated on the newer screens as have iPhone apps installed on an iPad in the past. In addition to this news, the source reports that Menebea will provide dual-LED backlight units to enhance the tablet's brightness, supported by batteries with up to 14,000 milliampere-hour capacity (current iPad batteries are rated at 6500 mAh).

Finally, Samsung will continue to supply the iPad's processing power in the form the quad-core A6 chip rather than the iPad 2's dual-core A5. This additional computing power (and battery life) will be relied on heavily to display four times as many pixels just as smoothly on the iPad 3 (2x2 = 4 pixels where there was only 1 before; thus, 1024x768 = 786,432 pixels, while 2048x1536 = 3,145,728 pixels). So while the increased quality of a higher resolution display is truly exciting, it poses a serious dilemma for graphic artists and illustrators working to produce ebooks with a file size that's not outlandish. There is, after all, only so much memory available for storage on these devices, and even with Apple's current 2 Gb limit on file size, fully illustrated ebooks and graphic novels of even half that size will fill up 16 gigs right quick.

Now, it would take a fair amount of hi-rez images to reach 2 gigs, but with enhanced audio and video and some animations it's not outside the realm of possibility that we will start to hit those limits in the not too distant future. The recent Yellow Submarine ebook comes in at 320 megs, and that was done with vector graphics for the most part (which are suited to that style), whereas my Ring Saga project is all full color bitmapped images that create even larger file sizes: just 22 pages and an outer cover at 2700x3375 resolution comes in at 48 Mb with high quality jpeg compression. Those sizes may have seemed a bit excessive before, but now a full-bleed image for a two-page layout will need to be at least 2048x3072 in size in order for each half to fill the screen in vertical orientation on the iPad 3 (presuming these specs are accurate). I'll obviously shrink those hi-rez images for the final iPad version anyway, but nowhere near as much now as I would have done before this news came out. And I'm glad it did, because it may have saved me a whole lot of work in the coming months redoing everything that I've just done.

UPDATED 1/30/11 to include current iPad battery specs, Retina display pixel comparison, and today's CNET analysis.

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

ePub File Icon

Lately I've grown tired of seeing the default Windows system icon representing .epub files, and decided to go looking for a new one. Since the official ePUB logo was revealed well over a year ago - way back in April of 2010, in fact, when Ralph Burkhardt's design was chosen as the winning entry - I would have thought by now an official icon would appear on .epub files in system folders. But sadly that's not the case. Not only that, but I couldn't readily find a good one based on the official logo. So I made one. Now all my .epub files are represented by this readily recognizable little green "e", to which I've added a bit of style in Photoshop.

Right-click the image above to download the linked icon file (not the .png image itself, but the file it links to), which is a 256 x 256 .ico file. For Windows 7 users you'll have to use a file manager such as FileTypesMan to change the default icon, since the "change icon" option is for some inexplicable reason no longer available in folder options or context menus for anything but shortcuts. In lieu of an official icon this should hold you over in the meantime.

Monday, December 26, 2011

New KDP List Price Requirements

The new pricing structure for Amazon KDP's 35% royalty option [Credit: Amazon]
Authors distributing their works through Kindle Direct Publishing should be aware that Amazon has recently altered their ebook pricing structure for the 35% royalty option to include restrictions based on file size. As you can see from the screen cap above there are now three divisions within the 35% option, requiring new minimum prices for files over 3Mb in size, with $1.99 as the new minimum list for those between 3 and 10 megs, and $2.99 as the lowest allowable price for files over 10 megabytes in size.

Until now there were no conditions set on the size of an ebook file in the 35% margin and no delivery charge associated with the file delivery, so that for a .99 cent title an author receives .35 cents, regardless of the file size. Ebooks receiving the 70% royalty have always been subjected to a .15 cents per megabyte bandwidth fee for the initial download, which is one reason the minimum price for this option has been $2.99 from the start. By comparison, at .15 cents per megabyte a .99 cent title at the 35% royalty would cost more to deliver than its profit margin affords at sizes over 2.3 megs. As a practical example, the file for The Saga of Beowulf is 2.31 Mb (640 pages in print, with a half dozen images), which deducts exactly .35 cents from my profit for each purchase.

With ebook files beginning to increase in size (often dramatically) as multimedia content is added, the logic here is obvious: Amazon is looking to a future when ebooks sold in KF8's more content-rich format will frequently contain enhanced audio-visual content, and thus require greater bandwidth to deliver - the addition of a single video, for example, can swell the file size to 50 megs or better depending on its length and compression ratio, and even shorter graphic novels will be hard pressed to come in at much less than that and keep the image quality decent. But since Whispersync delivery is free to users, the added cost must come from somewhere. Consequently, Amazon is making something of a preemptive move here as it eyes the future.

The most obvious and practical result of this new policy is that for titles with files larger than 3 Mb the .99 cent price point is now no longer an option. Amazon is essentially stating that going forward .99 cent titles are restricted to basic text-only ebooks of a reasonable length (or very short works with a handful of images). In essence, there will be no such thing as a .99 cent enhanced ebook on Amazon. For larger books, prices must be higher.

But the most interesting thing about this structure change is that while at first glance it appears to put a heavy limitation on the 35% option, in fact the 35% rate is by far the more profitable for larger files. A 10 Mb file at 70% will cost the author $1.50 in delivery fees, leaving only .59 cents on a $2.99 title after Amazon deducts their 30% share, whereas the same ebook at the 35% rate would net the author $1.05 - .46 cents more! And of course, the difference only goes up as file size increases: a 50 meg file at 70% will cost the author a whopping $7.50 for delivery alone! This effectively eliminates the 70% royalty as a possibility for enhanced ebooks, which is why Amazon has just raised the bottom line for the other option.
KDP Royalty Rate Comparison for Various File Sizes
As you can see from the table I made above, in practical terms 7 Mb is the dividing line for a $2.99 list title. At that size the 70% royalty nets $1.04 after delivery fee is charged, a penny less than the same $2.99 title with the 35% margin chosen. One can always raise the price, but that has drawbacks of its own each author will have to justify for themselves. For an ebook listed at $4.99 the dividing line increases to a 12 Mb file, with the 70% royalty netting six cents less at that point than the 35% option, but sales will also likely drop by half due to the higher price, depending on your popularity as an author, so you'll have to take that into consideration as well. Of course, if you're a well known author none of this will matter to you much, as you're probably charging $15 or better for your books, and unlikely to be reading this anyway.

Saturday, December 24, 2011

Kindle Updates

The Kindle Fire has been out for just five weeks now, and Amazon this week released its third firmware update, to version 6.2.1. As with the first two, this one installs automatically "over-the-air" while the Fire is asleep, so there's no need to install manually (although you can), nor do you need to "ok" the update: it rolls out whether you want it to or not as long as you're in wi-fi range.

It may seem unusual to update a product so often, and so soon, after its release, but I take this as a sign that Amazon is listening to customer feedback and working rapidly to effect repairs. That they want to continually improve the device rather than make their customers wait for next year's revision is a major benefit for users, who can purchase the Kindle knowing they'll receive continued product support. Unlike most hardware devices on the market today, the Kindle Fire is a continually improving machine, not just something you buy today and throw away tomorrow. The device I have today is better than the one I purchased last month, which is a trend I hope to see continue.

Improvement #1: UI

The primary focus of this latest update was to address issues with the user interface, from inconsistent touch response to the touchy carousel, and this is the first and most obvious fix this update has changed. The interface is much more smooth and consistent, and the carousel now stops much quicker on a chosen item, allowing it to be selected more easily. Before, the carousel moved so smoothly that it was difficult to stop, which often made for a frustrating experience. In addition, you can now remove items from the carousel by clicking and holding on its image.

Improvement #2: Password Lock

One of the complaints parents in particular have had is the inability to restrict access to Wi-Fi so as to keep young fingers from wandering where they ought not go (or buying what they shouldn't using one-click purchasing). This certainly makes sense for a multi-user household where children might use the device for reading and playing games, but in order for them to watch movies Wi-Fi would have to be turned on, since there's not enough memory to store more than one or two videos onboard.

Improvement #3: Browser/Streaming Performance

Which brings up the streaming/browser issue. I've only watched a few movies on the Fire just to check it out, and it's always worked flawlessly for me, so I can't quite understand the few complaints I've read of burps and glitches in the video, or slow browser performance. My guess is that the video glitches are due more to low Wi-Fi bandwidth, since to stream video smoothly on any device you need a 7 Mb or better connection, which many people don't yet have, and no hotels that I've stayed in. I have a 12Mb connection at home and the browser loads just fine. Side by side tests with my iPad 2 have had the Kindle Fire load pages faster than the iPad for sites I visit regularly, though not for others (and the 7" size is often an issue with selecting links). This tells me the "Silk" aspect of the Kindle browser is functioning just fine, anticipating my next move before I make it. The more you use the Silk browser, in fact, the faster it gets as it learns your preferences and pre-loads them for you behind the scenes. I suspect that users will begin to find it loading faster as time goes by, and will assume it's due to the firmware update. At any rate, this new update has supposedly improved video streaming performance for those who have had issues, but I can't corroborate that since I haven't had any myself.

Complaint #1: Rooting

The new update comes with one drawback for some users, which is that it undoes previous hacks that allow access to the Fire's inner workings, and prevents some of those hacks from being reintroduced. To me this is a completely bogus complaint, firstly because it only applies to a tiny fraction of Kindle Fire users, and secondly those users are trying to make the device into something it is not, and has never been intended to be. Amazon is selling a product with a given spec, openly divulging what the device contains and how it is intended to be used before you buy it. It is certainly the owner's right to modify a product they have purchased, but to expect the manufacturer to support those actions is ridiculous. If you want to remove the airbags from your car and turn it into a rally racer that's your business, but it voids the warranty and expunges the company of any responsibility for what occurs thereafter. If you want to root around in your device, then complain that Amazon's updates undermine your efforts to do so, then turn off your Wi-Fi and have at it; but you'll have to do so at the expense of all the other features that it offers, like Whispersync and Cloud storage, because Amazon only offers those under certain terms, and they say so right up front. It's the height of folly to think that Amazon's software engineers are going to work their updates around user hacks.

Kindle App Updates

Amazon also rolled out updates to the Kindle app for iOS this week, which includes Kindle Cloud access and Send-To-Kindle email function, support for the Kindle Fire's line of 400+ periodicals, as well as support for PDF and Kindle Print Replicas, which is Amazon's own PDF format, used primarily for textbooks with complex layouts. Unlike standard PDFs on Kindle devices, KPR allows you to annotate and highlight text just like any other Kindle book, as well as allowing them to be shared. All PDFs now have support for Table of Contents and Thumbnail browsing, as well as vastly improved page turn and render speed. Finally, a few new tabs in the main library screen allow you to isolate your personal Documents, Newsstand, or eBooks, as well as showing All Items as before.

Friday, December 23, 2011

October Sales Figures Are In

January-October Book Sales 2010 vs. 2011 [Credit: AAP via GalleyCat]
The AAP has just released updated sales figures for the publishing trade through October, which shows a continuing trend toward digital. While overall revenue is down slightly for the year (-4.5%), ebooks once again gave the strongest showing with an increase of 131% over the same period last year, while all print sectors were down (religious titles are not broken out between print and digital, so the ratio here is unknown). Digital audio downloads also posted a gain of 28.8%, while their equivalent physical editions fell by 10.6%.

For October alone, ebooks actually lost a bit of traction, showing only a "modest" +81.2% gain, their worst month this year, and the first drop below a 100% gain. For the record, here are the monthly gains for ebooks so far this year:

  • January: +115.8
  • February: +202.3
  • March: +145.7
  • April: +157.5
  • May: +146.9
  • June: +167
  • July: +105.3
  • August: +116.5
  • September: +100.9
  • October: +81.2

However, while digital continues to climb, it should be remembered that it still makes up a fraction of the overall book market, with all sectors still including in the single ebook figure while print is divided out among its several categories. The chart below gives a bigger picture of the current situation, showing ebook sales gaining rapidly, but as yet accounting for barely 20% of total sales. Still, it's the only one that's going up, and that's not likely to change for at least a few more years.
Total Sales Volume YTD 2010 vs. 2011 [Credit: paidContent.org]

Charlie Brown Christmas Free eBook App

Click to get the app!
Today's free app for the Kindle Fire is a really fun and festive interactive ebook app that recreates the classic animated short as a digital pop-up book. The story is narrated by Peter Robbins, the voice of the original Charlie Brown character, with additional dialogue from the original TV feature. The digitally remastered illustrations appear as beautifully rendered pop-up cutouts, all of which can be interacted with in various ways to enhance the story, triggering character-specific dialogue and actions such as opening a mailbox or throwing down a megaphone.

Other features include a paint can that lets you finger paint on the screen, a lesson that teaches you to play Jingle Bells on Schroeder's piano, and a game in which you decorate a Christmas tree. Snowflakes can be caught and stars sent shooting across the sky with musical accompaniment. The final choral singalong allows you to add additional vocal notes by tapping each character, causing them to join in with the carol. Along the way there are twelve special ornaments to collect which are hidden among the scenes, with one being "unlocked" each day in a countdown to Christmas; collecting all of them rewards you with a "spectacular prize" at the end, and since there are only two days left till Christmas, all but one of the ornaments can now be found. We'll have to wait until tomorrow to find the last of them and discover what surprise is revealed.

The ebook app was created by Loud Crow, the makers of the award-winning PopOut! Tale of Peter Rabbit. Both for kids and kids-at-heart this richly illustrated storybook is sure to bring much joy and kindle inner warmth this Christmas season.

Thursday, December 22, 2011

Yellow Submarine Free Enhanced eBook

Click to get the free Yellow Submarine eBook!
With the release of iBooks 1.5 a few weeks ago iTunes released this new interactive ebook based on The Beatles' 1968 animated film Yellow Submarine (as a tribute to Steve Jobs, who was a Beatles fan). Anyone interested in enhanced ebooks should pick it up as it includes some really nice features that are now possible in iBooks editions, including animated graphics, touch interactivity that triggers various events, video clips from the film, a read-to-me audio track with shaped SVG text layers, and, of course, plenty of music.

And best of all, it's free!

Even if you're not a Beatles fan, it's still a pretty cool ebook to look at. It's a good example of how to integrate enhanced features to augment the story and create an immersive experience, rather than simply tacking on a couple of marginally related videos and calling it "enhanced". Of course, with Yellow Submarine having been an audio-visual experience in the first place, the content lends itself quite readily to this new medium. It's exciting to see that this sort of thing can now be done right in an ebook, without having to build a separate app. So I'm hopeful we'll be seeing a lot more books like this in the near future.

Monday, December 19, 2011

50,000 Page Views

The technology on which I started writing my first book
I started writing this blog a little over three years ago as a way to document my experience in publishing a novel. Since then the publishing industry has changed dramatically in many unexpected ways, and so has this blog.

Originally I wrote a lot about how to set up your own publishing company in order to utilize the new Print On Demand model to produce print editions via Ingram's Lightning Source division, which enabled independent author-publishers to distribute to the two primary online retailers, Amazon and Barnes & Noble. At the time Amazon had only just released the first Kindle device, and while ebooks began to sell, print was still the only way to go. POD appeared to be the saving grace for independents, allowing them to produce professional quality books with little up front cost, and get them onto Amazon. As yet there were few tools available on Amazon to tweak your product page or understand your sales, and less on other sites, meaning that to a great degree self-pubbed authors were flying blind. There was no Smashwords, Barnes & Noble had yet to begin its PubIt program, and the iPad was just a dream in Apple's eye.

In October of 2008 The Saga of Beowulf was released via my fledgling publishing company Fantasy Castle Books, and that's when this blog began in earnest. But there was marketing to do if my novel was ever to be read, and so I spent a year discussing (and experimenting with) how to get your book in front of readers and reviewers, do blog tours and online interviews, and promote your work to the world at large. I built a website and starting adding content. I made promo videos, bookmarks, reference materials and a press kit. I posted sample chapters and audio excerpts, as well as my full screenplay on which the book was based. My book received two awards and sold steadily, if not dramatically. Facebook was only just taking over the reins of social network dominance from MySpace, and Twitter was as yet all but unknown to most. Smart phones had only recently come into their own.

Two years ago I started work on my next project, which was to be an original story I would post here on this blog as each writing session was done, which would allow for ongoing reader feedback during the writing process. But that took a sudden left turn when I was introduced to 3D digital art and decided to add full color illustrations to the new book. I had initially intended to add a lot of pen and ink art to that first book, but the sheer size and scope of the story ultimately prevented it: at 640 pages there just wasn't any room for pictures. But with this next project I would conceive it as a visual project from the start. And so I set off on another journey, learning 3D rendering with DAZ and Poser, and the book turned into something altogether more complex than I had planned. And thus another year went by.

Meanwhile, ebooks began to take over the market with a vengeance, altering the landscape of the publishing industry in near apocalyptic ways, with the shifting sands absorbing Borders and giving rise to the tablet market. Amazon has since become the go-to destination for independent authors, who now see ebooks as their savior, and the Kindle its figurehead via Kindle Direct Publishing. During the past year or so this blog has become a source for news and statistics on the digital "revolution," and my posts increasingly given to analyzing and evaluating the rapidly shifting terrain of both independent and traditional publishing. My particular focus has been on ways of reproducing illustrated books and graphic novels in the new e-media that has quickly flourished, since it was now certain that my new illustrated graphic novel project, The Ring Saga, would need to find a home on these new devices.

During the course of the past year I have posted - as I had originally planned to do - the pages of my latest work as they have progressed, both here and on my publisher website, with copious notes and additional images detailing my creative process. Since its inception this new project has consumed virtually every waking moment of my life that was not allotted to my day job, which still pays the vast majority of my bills. Surprisingly, just as this blog's readership has continued to climb, the sales of my first book have steadily increased as well, to the point where it brings in more income now than when I was heavily promoting it two to three years ago. This is almost entirely due to the increase in ebook sales, which now make up roughly 90% of my revenue.

It took over two years for this blog to hit 10,000 page views, which occurred December 29th last year. It's taken just under one year to add another 40,000 to that figure to quintuple my daily readership. I can only hope that means that what I write inspires and informs other authors, stimulates readers of epic and historical fantasy fiction, and instills an independent spirit into the creative writers and artists of tomorrow. Where this blog will go in the next three years is just as unknown as it was three years ago, but wherever that is, it's bound to be an adventure.

So thanks for reading, and stay tuned.
The technology on which I work now

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Aptara Survey Addendum - Enhanced Ebooks

Breakdown of Enhanced eBook development among publishers
[Credit: Aptara Corp., "3rd Annual eBook Survey of Publishers," September 2011]
I meant to point this out the other day when I posted the Aptara survey infographic, but somehow missed adding it. This is just as well, as I feel it's significant enough to deserve a separate mention of its own. At least to those of us who are working to create graphic novels and stories with interactive elements that push the boundaries of what a book has been.

Ebooks have come a long way in a few short years, but one of the areas where they haven't even begun to reach their full potential is with regards to enhanced content. Aside from the sheer newness of the medium for many publishers, one of the main reasons for this is because thus far the major focus has been in converting print books to digital, in essence creating digital equivalents of printed books. Consequently, the major effort has been to develop digital editions that resemble print, that replicate printed books in electronic form, right down to the fake book edges and page turns found in iBooks.

While this is perfectly fine, particularly in converting previously published works, and has greatly helped to ease what has often been a difficult transition for many readers, it has at the same time limited the creative vision of what an electronic book can do going forward. Only now are content creators beginning to throw off the shackles and blinders that have restricted their imagination. Beyond just adding in some bonus video and audio content, electronic formats are capable of transcending the parameters of what a book has been until now. In the future, books will encompass a much broader spectrum of media, including such possibilities as networked interactive input from globally located readers, or books without boundaries, literally, in which the pages might turn in any direction, rather than just left to right, depending on where the reader wants the story to go. Adding factors such as geolocation and algorithmic adaptation can produce books that are different for each reader (or group of readers) each time they are read. The possibilities are virtually endless.

But first you must start somewhere. And for now, that's mainly been restricted to adding in some audio content and a couple of videos in between the standard lines of text. Cookbooks, travel guides, and other non-fiction works are the main place this is happening, aside from read-to-me features of children's books and a handful of pretty cool digital adaptations of classics such as Bram Stoker's Dracula, H.G. Wells' War of the Worlds, and a couple of rather curious Alice in Wonderland innovations. Most of these have been done as apps because ebook formats themselves haven't had the capability to produce them ... until now. With ePub 3 (and presumably KF8 to an as-yet unknown degree), the underlying HTML5/CSS3 coding incorporates the needed features of multi-layer, graphic intensive projects that enhanced ebooks inevitably entail, giving ebooks at last the possibilities of scripted content that websites have long had.

But one thing at a time. The chart above is taken from the recent Aptara survey discussed a few posts ago, and shows the rate of enhanced ebook development among the various publishing sectors. The key factor is the percentage of publishers who are now producing them, to which I have added (in red) last year's figures for reference. As you can see, the highest rate of production is in the education field, with K-12 publishers shifting in a single year from 4% to a 35% rate of adoption. This is likely due to the read-to-me feature and simple graphic interactivity being naturally suited to children's picture books such as those by Dr. Seuss, although more complex textbooks and scientific manuals have increased in production by quite a large margin as well. The Trade sector, which a year ago led the pack at 10%, has in the meantime fallen behind in its adoption rate, merely doubling its pace to 21%.

Overall, a whopping 42% of publishers say they're still investigating enhanced ebooks, with another 18% having no plans at all to begin producing them. Certainly, a large number of publishers never will, as the content they produce is not conducive to much more than basic black on white (although such enhancements as video interviews or embedded audio tracks for the visually impaired could be useful anywhere - and technically even hyperlinks and built in dictionaries are enhanced features not found in print editions, but who's counting?). A majority of the market will likely remain books built out of words and nothing more, at least for a time. But for those of us looking to develop extra features for our stories and bridge the gap between a broad array of multimedia experiences, these numbers are indicative of the state we're in: a tentative beginning in which only the first few steps have yet been taken.

Saturday, December 17, 2011

Amazon Adds US Reviews to UK Site

I'm not sure how long this has been active, but I just noticed that Amazon.co.uk has added a new function which imports reviews from the U.S. site to the respective U.K. and Canadian pages. The reviews are clearly marked as being derived from the U.S. market, and as you can see the feature is also marked as still in beta stage. This is a major update that I've been wanting to see for some time, as buyers from across the globe should be able to read reviews of a product they are considering, regardless of where those reviews originated. So kudos to Amazon for that. Only the top three most helpful reviews are shown, with a link beneath that takes you to the U.S. site to see the rest. In addition, only reviews from the U.S. site seem to be imported. My one review on Amazon's Canadian page, for example, has not been imported elsewhere, while the U.S. reviews are now available there (although the Canadian review has only one helpful vote, so that may have ruled it out, since the lowest of the others has four). For titles that have more than three reviews on the native site already, there is just a link beneath to see U.S. reviews.

Another web page module imported to the U.K. is the "Popular Highlights" section, which allows Kindle ebook readers to make their highlights public, so that other Kindle readers with this function turned on can see them. This feature only shows up on a title's ebook listing (not on the print edition listing), and shows the most highlighted passage among Kindle readers who use the Public Notes feature. Unlike the reviews feature, this one has been rolled out everywhere except Japan (although I can't be sure, as I don't read Japanese), with the passage shown in English and the title and number of highlighters given in the site's native language.

The highlight shown above, by the way, is from The Saga of Beowulf, and is my rendition of a passage from the Elder Edda's Hávamál section, which contains a list of old Nordic wisdom in the form of cryptic poetic sayings (sort of like their version of fortune cookie quotes). I reworked a number of these and put them in the mouth of my wise old sage Ægnir, who says little and always speaks in riddles, and apparently this is the one that readers liked the most. I guess a lot of people must lay awake and worry these days. But then, some things never change.

Friday, December 16, 2011

Flex Lighting Demo

Flex Lighting is an LED sheet just 50 microns thin that can be used on eInk touchscreens to provide even lighting across the full display, allowing you to read in the dark. Unfortunately it's not an add-on product (yet), but look for these to be integrated into the next generation of eInk readers. No info is provided as to battery consumption, but since you can turn the light layer on and off it should be fairly low overall. If it works well (and is cost effective) this, combined with color eInk/Mirasol displays, could render LCD screens obsolete.

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Kindle Sales Figures Update

Amazon announced today that the Kindle line has been selling more than 1 million units per week for the past three weeks, with the Fire leading the charge as the best selling of the bunch. In addition, the press release states that the Kindle Fire has been the number one product across all of Amazon for the full 11 weeks it's been available to order. As usual, no specific breakdown of numbers was forthcoming, but this alone is more than Amazon generally reveals, and pegs the Fire at somewhere above a quarter million sales per week, with "demand accelerating" according to the release.

In a related report, Goldman Sachs projects that Amazon could sell as many as 6 million Fire tablets by year's end, plus another 8 million of the other Kindle models for a total of 14 million units sold in the final three months of 2011. The report goes on to predict between 15.5 and 20.5 million Kindle Fire devices will be sold in its first year of life. Meanwhile, a Morgan Stanley study projects 82 million iPads to sell next year, an increase in expectation of 42%. IDC reported some specific third quarter numbers that come close to, but don't quite jive with, those given in the earlier iSuppli report I commented on in a prior post, placing pre-Fire tablet sales in this order [iSuppli numbers given in brackets]:
  1. Apple iPad 2 - 11.1 million for 61.5% of the market [11,123,000 / 69.7% market share]
  2. Samsung Galaxy Tab - (+/-) 1 million for  [1,250,000 / 7.8%]
  3. HP Touchpad - 903,000 with 5% of the market (due to their $99 pre-Kindle Fire "fire sale") [not included in iSuppli figures, possibly due to the Touchpad being cancelled]
  4. Barnes & Noble Nook(s) - 805,000 for 4.5% [750,000 / 4.7%]
  5. Asus - 4% share, no unit figures given [presumably included in iSuppli 4.3% "Others" category, but not specified]
  6. HTC - [not included here, but inexplicably given 5th place above Asus by iSuppli with 253,000 units sold and just 1.6% of the market]
Amazon has, of course, completely altered these figures for the final quarter of the year by taking second place with an estimated 14% market grab in just a matter of a few short weeks. This just goes to show how uncertain and unstable the tablet market is right now. The only thing that can be said for sure is that the market is growing at a rapid rate (IDC projects worldwide tablet sales for 2011 to reach 63.3 million), and who is doing well at any given point is - literally - up for grabs.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Long Live The Independent Revolution!

In case you missed it, USA Today did a feature this morning on how self-published authors are finding success, focusing on a half dozen specifically whose success stories are outlined. This is significant in that it brings news of the burgeoning independent movement to a mainstream readership, helping to legitimize the self-pub initiative and lay to rest the hackneyed and derogatory term "vanity press" with its outdated view of non-traditional publications as inherently worthless. As if it's somehow less effort to write an unsold novel than a million seller, or less admirable a struggle to fill 300 sheets of paper with words no one will ever read than to craft yet another story about a serial killer on the loose that is bound to sell because every other one just like it did.

I don't subscribe to USA Today, but I happened to be out of town and staying at a hotel when I had the latest issue laid in front of me at breakfast today. Needless to say it was a pleasant surprise, and welcome reading to see hard working authors (even of the serial killer variety) merit some well earned recognition, and the entrenched megalith that is traditional New York publishing receive an open challenge to its standard practice of deciding for the rest of us what we should be reading. By removing the middlemen who until now have been acting as our literary gatekeepers we, the readers, have been freed to decide for ourselves what merits our attention. In nearly every case mentioned in the story the powers-that-be completely missed what the readers understood by instinct: that a good story with interesting characters was lying in wait among those pages - pages which every agent and editor who "read" them consigned to the round file of oblivion, but which the readers then went on to buy in droves.

The great irony of this is that we live in a land and time where every voice is endowed by law and honor with the right to speak and be heard. And yet it has become all but impossible for the vast majority of authors to reach their destined readers. Only the chosen few are allowed to speak. The days when every pamphlet and treatise went to press regardless of how unorthodox or revolutionary are far behind us. The days of independent presses cranking out a stream of radical and even incendiary literature have been quelled by the pressure to deliver profits to faceless stockholders.

For too long has freedom of speech been hijacked by boardroom economics!
Too long have those with voices been silenced by corporate greed!
Too often are the needs of the many overridden by the interests of the few!
Too many are the pens laid to rest when their flow of words is staunched by form rejection letters!

But no more! The revolution has returned. Viva la ebook!

Long live true freedom of the press!

Monday, December 12, 2011

The Cost Of A Kindle

Click to Visit iSuppli and Read More
Here are a couple of breakdowns I've come across recently, showing the estimated production cost of the Kindle Fire. The one above is from the Wall Street Journal and pegs the total internal device cost at $143, but doesn't take into account a number of factors that the iSuppli chart at right does, namely labor and packaging, which increases the figure to a few bucks over their retail price of $199. In addition, neither factor in such additional expenses as software, licensing fees, or marketing, all of which would normally come out of the final retail price if the seller were only trying to make a profit on the product. But Amazon intends to make its money selling content for the device, not on the device itself, making the Kindle Fire more like a little portable storefront with an infinitely variable window display in which to show their wares. The Kindle Fire is, in fact, the Amazonian equivalent of a brick-and-mortar store, with a personalized bookshop in every house. Plus they sell other stuff too.

Sunday, December 11, 2011

Ebook Publishing Infographic Analysis

Here's another nice infographic put together by The Content Wrangler sizing up the current state of the ebook industry, based on the latest detailed survey of publishing professionals done by Aptara. This is the third annual survey, and it points out a number of enormous changes that have occurred over the past few years.

Foremost among them is the statistic given in the upper right of the infographic, showing that 62% of all publishers are now producing ebooks. Among trade publishers (i.e. non-corporate or educational), that number is 76%, with another 19% saying they have plans in place to begin ebook production. In the first Aptara survey of 2009 just 50% of trade publishers were producing digital editions. Only 6% now say they have no plans to do so.
Question 4: What is your organization's current involvement with eBooks?

Other highlights of the latest survey are that nearly one in five (18%) of eBook publishers generate more than 10% of their revenue from digital editions, although three times that many (57%) pull in less than 3% from eBooks, with 14% of publishers producing eBooks making nothing from their efforts thus far. This is a "strong statistic for an early-stage market" according to the survey findings, and shows that there is still a lot of room for growth.

Another interesting tidbit is that 10% of publishers intend to produce eBooks instead of print, while 85% plan to do both. Meanwhile, 37% now produce more than three-fourths of their titles as eBooks, with 32% converting less than one fourth of their output to digital. One stat not shown on the infographic is that two out of three publishers have yet to convert the majority of their backlist into eBooks, meaning there are a lot of older titles out there still waiting to be released as eBooks.

Amazon still holds the lion's share of the eBook market, but that share is shrinking as publishers begin to sell from their own e-commerce sites.
Question 8: What devices/platforms are you targeting with your eBooks?

Another interesting factoid is the battle between the Kindle format and ePub, with the latter emerging rapidly as a dominant target for eBook producers in the very near future. The chart above shows the devices and platforms eBook publishers are targeting, with the Kindle getting only 19% of the Trade market's focus while ePub makes up 34% (between the combined iBookstore and single-function devices capable of reading that format), making ePub the most heavily targeted platform. In other words, eBook publishers are looking to separate themselves from Amazon's proprietary platform, even though current sales don't justify it (see next chart below), and few (only 25%) have any strategy for moving to the ePub format. Meanwhile, the Android platform is too highly fragmented to be effective, and Blackberry has lost more ground than it is ever likely to make up, being all but out of the race at this point.
Question 10: Which channel produces the largest percentage of your eBook sales?

Overall Amazon produces 38% of eBook sales, but as you can see in the chart above, they account for 56% of Trade sales, compared to the next closest at 13% (a 43% margin), that second place being taken by a combined total of all individual publisher eCommerce sites as compared to Amazon alone (that's why they're called "Amazon"). Internal corporate sales are what have skewed the figure away from Amazon in the overall picture, which is why I'm posting up this additional breakdown, since Trade sales are what are really relevant to the average consumer and independent author. The educational and professional categories also cause a lot of wobble in the figures, since STM (Science, Technical & Medical) and College/K-12 text sales are generally derived from direct distribution via sales reps and conferences, as shown in the considerably higher percentages allotted to the "Other" and "Unsure" categories in these markets.

The big shocker here is how poorly Barnes & Noble are faring in the eBook battle, with a mere 1% of digital sales both overall and in Trade books alone. Given the fact that they have both brick-and-mortar outlets as well as a line of dedicated eReaders with their own integrated online bookstore, this is an appallingly bad showing. Even Apple have done better with a combined 3% share overall and 4% in Trade between iTunes and the iBookstore. Meanwhile, Sony has lost all traction as a source of digital literature whatsoever, with no reported sales at all!

However, I have to say that I'm a bit surprised at the number of publishers who are "Unsure" as to the source of their revenue. This is either a function of the somewhat poorly reported eBook sales stats, and/or the publishers' own uncertainty as to where their digital sales are coming from due to the lack of a well-developed internal eBook accounting infrastructure. This has been a problem for some time, although there is improvement in reporting, with Amazon in particular being fairly transparent to publishers about their eBook sales. 11% for "Other" is also a pretty substantial segment, since there aren't very many significant "others" at play aside from Google, who continue to surprise me by not meriting their own breakdown (are they really faring that poorly?). Most of the "Other" category is likely made up of aggregators such as Smashwords who have their own storefronts as well as distributing to other channels.
Question 20: Which of the following devices do you personally use to read eBooks?


Finally, while the views of traditional publishers as to their favored eReading device are far less relevant that that of actual eBook consumers, it is telling that the multimedia iPad is the preferred eReader over the dedicated Kindle device, even though most consumers say just the opposite, and as sales of the two eBook formats clearly show (mind you, the Kindle Fire was not yet out when the survey was taken). That an equal number of publishers prefer to read on a PC/Mac as they do a Kindle is highly questionable, and goes more to show their reluctance to support Amazon by claiming to like their device (even though there would be no eBook market without it). The breakdown above again shows that it is the non-Trade segments who are skewing these figures the most, which makes sense as a lot of professional and academic research is still done on personal computers rather than on personal reading devices.

However, the most relevant statistic is in the number of respondents who don't read eBooks at all. In the first Aptara survey of 2009 22% said they had never read an eBook, while two years later that number is down by half to 11% overall, and just 8% among Trade professionals, showing how fully the digital revolution has been embraced (or at least accepted). The final summation of the survey states the case quite clearly:
Publishers couldn’t ask for a better position: the ground floor of an early-stage market experiencing exponential sales growth. The downside to being at the starting gate is the growing pains; the upside is the untapped revenue potential that lies ahead. Publishers still face distribution channel, quality, pricing, and DRM issues, but these concerns have gradually diminished over the past two years—a sign of an eBook market that is starting to mature.

Click the image below for a high-rez version.


Saturday, December 10, 2011

SOB On Kindle Lending Library

Ever since Amazon began lending ebooks as part of the Kindle Prime program there's been a lot of talk on the web (much of it negative) as to how - and if - authors would be compensated for these new library loans. Never mind that a large percentage of Kindle titles were already available for free library lending through Overdrive (a choice that publishers make for themselves when uploading titles to the Kindle platform), the fact that Amazon charges $79 per year for its Prime membership meant that authors (rightly) felt deserving of a share of that pie by way of royalties for the use of their product in what amounts to promotion of Amazon's Kindle line and a major offensive in Amazon's conquest of the ebook market.

The publishing world's response to this shot across the bow has been essentially to withdraw from the fight. Penguin infamously pulled all of its titles from library lending altogether, only to capitulate in part after a mass reaction from both press and public: their older titles are once again available via libraries, but new titles are not, and they're having nothing to do with the Kindle at all for the time being. The reaction has been only slightly less dramatic from the remaining players among the majors, but none of this seems to have phased Amazon in the least, or slowed sales of the revamped Kindle line, including the new Kindle Fire, which various estimates place somewhere between three and five million units. With each of those tablets including a free month of Amazon Prime, that's quite a few million free ebook loans pending for the month of December alone.

This week Amazon rolled out the fledgling Kindle Owner's Lending Library to independent authors who publish through Kindle Direct Publishing (KDP). The new program is called KDP Select, and Amazon is setting aside half a million dollars every month to pay authors royalties for titles that are borrowed by Kindle owners through the Prime membership program, with the entire monthly sum of $500,000 being divided out among all titles borrowed during each month. Within a day of launch over 37,000 titles were enrolled in the program. So I guess that answers all those authors' questions as to how they'll be compensated for ebook loans.

The caveat to this deal is that in order to enroll a title in the program it must be exclusive to Amazon for a period of at least 90 days, meaning the ebook cannot be available for sale on any other site or any format but the Kindle (although the print edition can still be sold elsewhere). Like many authors, I can afford to do this because the vast majority of my sales come from Amazon. I also have the added benefit of having a two-volume edition of The Saga of Beowulf available on other sites that does not fall under the non-compete clause by virtue of being listed on Amazon as separate entries from the Complete Edition, which is the one I have enrolled in the program. I'm always up for trying out a new experiment, and it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

So let's do some math. Amazon offers this example:
...if total borrows of all participating KDP titles are 100,000 in December and your book was borrowed 1,500 times, you will earn $7,500 in additional royalties from KDP Select in December.
In other words, 100,000 loans is one fifth of the $500,000 pot, allotting $5 to each book loan, times 1500 loans equals $7500. Of course, with 3-5 million new Kindle Fire owners each being given a free month of Prime, the number of loans is likely to be something closer to 10-20 times that given in the example, dividing the allotment down to around .25 to .50 cents each, and potentially much much less. With five million ebooks loaned the per-loan royalty would be a mere .05 cents each. So even at the incredibly unlikely rate of 1500 loans per month, you're still only looking at a total revenue of $75. And most books will only be loaned out a handful of times, if even that. Of course, it could go the other way and only a handful of titles will be borrowed, making the individual allotment much more impressive: a total of 10,000 loans for December, for example, would net each author $50 per loan. But I highly doubt that will happen.

The question of numbers is, of course, entirely conjectural. At best these are wild guesses. Even Amazon can't know fully what to expect, although I'm pretty certain they know what they're doing. And I have to give them kudos for putting up the money in the first place, particularly since the only way they can possibly make any profit here is by converting borrowers to buyers, which they must believe is a fairly solid possibility. The number of initial Prime users who opt to continue their enrollment at $79/year is certainly bound to be greater with this added bonus of a "free" ebook to read each month than it would be otherwise. And as we're already seeing an influx of titles to the program, it's obviously paying off in terms of having a lot of exclusive content to offer.

It's unlikely the "Big Six" will go for this, which is making Amazon the leader of the new independent revolution. They're clearly not courting the major publishers here, and frankly it looks more like all out war to me, to see who can command the largest market share on the other side of the digital divide (that is, in the post-print era that is coming). With titles like Water For Elephants (Algonquin Press) and The Hunger Games trilogy (Scholastic) enrolled in the program it's clear their strategy is to divide and conquer, courting the smaller presses while the major trades fall further and further behind. It's a battle that is only bound to get more vicious and ugly as time goes on. But so far, Amazon is winning.

Saturday, December 3, 2011

Projected Tablet Sales

The chart above shows the current (right) and projected (left) market shares for the various tablet devices out right now through the end of this year. Amazon, of course, had no tablet on the market in the 3rd quarter, but this projection estimates the Kindle Fire will gain 13.8% of tablet sales for the final quarter, putting Amazon in 2nd place, well behind Apple (who have a two year head start) but firmly ahead of everyone else, including Barnes & Noble, who have had a full year to gain traction with the Nook, but have failed to do so in any significant way.

Even though the NookColor has been priced at half the iPad's lowest price, B&N's lack of content support for both music and video, as well as a weak app environment, have hampered Nook adoption. This just goes to show how few people actually use multimedia devices for reading books: tablets are primarily a game platform, as evidenced by the top selling app charts. Comics are the only segment of the book trade making serious headway on color tablets, for obvious reasons.

Interestingly however, B&N are the only entry project not to lose market share through the holiday season (although they won't gain any either). Amazon's cannibalization will come primarily from Apple's share, with Samsung taking a heavy loss as well. Granted, these are only projections, but it's fairly clear than the Kindle Fire is the winner here: to claim 2nd place and close to 14% of any market in your first quarter of existence is a feat most products can only dream of.

The chart below shows the newly revised tablet sales forecasts for the coming years. As you can clearly see, the figures have been revised upward as the tablet adoption trend is projected to continue unabated for at least another three or four years, during which time tablet technology will continue to improve at a rapid pace and prices will drop until they reach a plateau somewhere around 2015. Again, these are only guesstimates, but they're based on expected production orders from reliable sources in the business of knowing what's going on. What will really happen is anybody's guess.

Friday, December 2, 2011

Tablet Display Resolution Soon To Increase

With pixel density set to multiply in the next generation of e-reading devices, several questions face today's ebook designers with regards to visual content. Much like the early days of video games, today's digital comics and illustrated novels face quick extinction as display technology outpaces the ability of content to keep up. By the time a fixed layout ebook is formatted and finalized today, tomorrow's devices will improve and render it outdated within a year of its release. This is true not only of the reading devices themselves - which have a virtually built in obsolescence date of twelve months between generation waves - but now for a particular segment of the content spectrum as well: any images formatted to render correctly on today's e-reading devices will be horribly outmoded by this time next year.

This may seem a bit extreme until you consider that an image - an ebook cover, for example - formatted to fill the screen of an iPad 2 at 132 pixels per inch will cover only half that space on the iPad 3's projected 264 ppi display. That is, given the same 9.7" display size, an image 768x1024 pixels in size will completely fill the screen of the iPad 2 today, but on next year's 2048x1536 iPad 3 display, that same cover image or illustration will leave over half the screen empty - or zoom to twice its resolution, rendering it grainy and pixelated, just like those ancient Space Invaders. Illustrations embedded amidst reflowable text will suddenly become swamped in a sea of words, their detail all but indistinguishable due to their smaller display size.

And Apple isn't the only device platform planning a pixel explosion in the coming year: Android tablet manufacturers are said to be ramping up production of 1920x1200 pixel displays, many of them believed to be destined for Amazon's next gen full-size tablets, which various reports place at either 8.9" or 10.1" (or both). This poses critical problems for graphic ebook designers. With these increased screen specs comes demand for higher resolution images, and with it increased file size. And with Amazon enforcing a .15 cent surcharge per megabyte on ebook sales this is no small consideration for heavily illustrated works such as photo collections or cookbooks, not to mention comics and graphic novels. In order for an illustrated ebook created today to still be viewable with its same design layout on tomorrow's tablets images nearly twice their current standard size need to be embedded; otherwise we'll all be viewing mini-mebooks.

Tablet pixels-per-inch average set to increase in coming quarters


Thursday, December 1, 2011

2011 Book Sales Update

As you can see from the chart above, it's been another banner year for ebooks so far, with a 100.9% increase in sales over this time last year. Meanwhile, print books continue to decline, with adult mass market titles taking the biggest hit in a -54.3% nosedive. Overall book trade sales dropped by 6.45% over the prior year, showing that increased ebook sales are not making up entirely for lost print sales. This is due, of course, to the fact that digital editions are a fraction (less than half on average) than that of their respective print entries.

For a more in depth comparison of some key factors relating print to digital here is an infographic which lays out in visual terms such book related statistics as relative market share and growth of ebooks vs. print, the pros and cons of each in ecological terms (i.e. relative carbon emissions and deforestation), as well as the misperception of average production costs between the two mediums (it is at present vastly more expensive per unit to produce an ebook than a hardback, for example).

Most importantly, this is a trend that doesn't look as if it's likely to change anytime soon. With the tablet market riding a wave of rapid expansion and its supporting technological innovation experiencing a relentless momentum of improvement, digital will only continue to consume an ever larger share of the overall book and multimedia market. What this means for authors and publishers is a pivotal shift in our fundamental paradigm unlike anything that's happened since the Renaissance. We are witnessing nothing less than a revolution in the cultural history of our species. Historians will look back on these few years as a turning point, a dividing line that separates two epochs of our literary evolution. The first decade of the 21st century will be the last days that print books were the predominant mode of consuming literary content.